Monday, December 10, 2012

Amarin Projected Revenue Model

Some of you may have indicated that you would like to see the projected revenue for Amarin. This is the median analyst projected revenue for Amarin until 2030 (exclusivity expiration).







I have put together some revenue multiples used in some of the Amarin analyst reports, and these are as of Friday, December 7th closing, 20-Day Trading Average to smooth out any white noise movements in the stock. NFY indicates (2013 revenue) and NFY +1 indicates (2014 revenue).


As you can see from the indicate market pricing. Neptune is priced at a 4.79x revenue multiple, which Amarin SHOULD yield a significant premium to that due to efficacy, exclusivity, etc. (Right now only trading about 0.3x premium). Say 6.5x NFY+1 revenue would indicate $2.1 billion Enterprise Value, which shows that the current market pricing for Amarin is UNDERVALUED. 

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